David Booth of Dimensional Fund Advisors does a great job of explaining market cycles. There is no evidence that current investor sentiment has predictive power for future returns. A case can actually be made that investors are usually wrong and we should expect higher than expected returns in the years to come.
By Eric Burkholder
There is a very good article out today on MarketWatch.com. "You are the best predictor of next bull or bear" The title is misleading but the theme of the article is this: There is no evidence that any person or any expert has any ability to predict mutual fund returns or forecast the economy. Actually, an even better summary of the article is in the affirmative: There IS significant evidence that traditional performance metrics cannot reliably predict mutual fund performance and there IS significant evidence that experts do a very poor job of predicting turning points in the economy.