By Eric Burkholder, Portfolio Manager
A 2012 review of market outcomes and the “experts” who failed to predict them.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” - Niels Bohr, Danish physicist
The world of investment advice and market forecasting is very profitable. Let me rephrase that. The world of investment advice and market forecasting is very profitable for those selling the advice. The outcome for those who invest on said advice is not quite as rosy. So each year I make a point to track all the “expert” predictions and highlight some of the more pronounced failures. 2012, as expected, did not disappoint.