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The Princess Bride can teach us a valuable lesson about investing.

I never imagined I would make such a statement until recently when I was pondering the futility of market participants trying to predict the next market downturn or pick the next big stock.  

For me it brings to mind the movie The Princess Bride.  One of my favorite scenes is the Battle of Wits between the characters Wesley and Vizzini.  For anyone who has not seen the movie the Battle of Wits is structured as follows: There are two wine glasses on the table.  One of which has been poisoned by Wesley.  Vizzini does not know which glass has been poisoned and must deduce which glass is deadly. Once Vizzini selects a glass they both must drink their wine and the loser will die. 

Just about three weeks ago the market was in another panic. It was a situation very similar to August of last year. Job numbers were concerning and the markets were reacting dramatically to every headline. The same point we made then applies this time around. These numbers are a distraction and will only reveal something in hindsight.

Another well-written blog was recently posted by Dan Wheeler concerning the recent market pullback. Click Here.  The main idea of this great perspective can really be summed up in two points:

Kendall King, a partner and advisor here at Legacy Financial Group, linked to a great article on Financial Advising today on his twitter feed.

By Eric Burkholder

David Booth of Dimensional Fund Advisors does a great job of explaining market cycles. There is no evidence that current investor sentiment has predictive power for future returns. A case can actually be made that investors are usually wrong and we should expect higher than expected returns in the years to come.

By Eric Burkholder

There is a very good article out today on MarketWatch.com.  "You are the best predictor of next bull or bear" The title is misleading but the theme of the article is this:  There is no evidence that any person or any expert has any ability to predict mutual fund returns or forecast the economy.  Actually, an even better summary of the article is in the affirmative: There IS significant evidence that traditional performance metrics cannot reliably predict mutual fund performance and there IS significant evidence that experts do a very poor job of predicting turning points in the economy.  

In the era of perpetual reality TV offerings it is no surprise that Big Foot has finally nabbed his own TV series. And like most outrageous reality TV I caught myself watching for a few minutes.

By Eric Burkholder, Portfolio Manager

A 2011 review of market outcomes and the “experts” who failed to predict them.

 “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” - Niels Bohr, Danish physicist